ELECTION SHOWDOWN 2006
I have not posted since May. My summer and fall have been incredibly busy times. With the looming election I thought it was time to post some information for the election.
My own prediction is that the Republicans will retain leadership of the Senate but lose the House...however it all depends on the Republican get out to the vote operation that is much better than the Democrats (or so the word on the street says).
Here is a good analysis from CQ:
Buoyed by a battery of independent and partisan polls, and handicapping by CQ and other nonpartisan political analysts that shows their candidates highly competitive in battleground districts and even some traditional Republican strongholds, Democrats are increasingly bullish on their chances to net the gain of at least 15 seats that they need to oust the GOP’s J. Dennis Hastert of Illinois as the Speaker of the House and install Nancy Pelosi of California instead.
As of Oct. 27, CQ’s individual assessments of all 435 House races showed Democrats seriously contesting Republican holds on 72 seats (31 percent of the party’s current total) with seven of those races already leaning toward a Democratic takeover and 18 more considered genuine tossups — the result of a combination of Republican political weaknesses and the Emanuel team’s success at growing the roster of competitive Democratic challengers, many in districts that the party had not contested in years. By contrast, only 21 Democratic seats were in play, and only a handful appeared seriously at risk. The bottom line is that the Republicans are now ahead at least marginally in only 207 races, meaning that even if they hold on to all of those (which won’t happen) they must win 11 of the 18 tossups to retain power. The Democrats are now ahead in 210 races — nine more than the number of seats they have now — so if they hold all those leads they will need to win just eight of the tossups to gain control.
As they have throughout the campaign, the Democrats face their more daunting task in the Senate: They must gain a net of six seats to take control — an all-the-more-unlikely prospect just two years after they lost four seats. But their quest has now put them within striking distance...
My own prediction is that the Republicans will retain leadership of the Senate but lose the House...however it all depends on the Republican get out to the vote operation that is much better than the Democrats (or so the word on the street says).
Here is a good analysis from CQ:
Buoyed by a battery of independent and partisan polls, and handicapping by CQ and other nonpartisan political analysts that shows their candidates highly competitive in battleground districts and even some traditional Republican strongholds, Democrats are increasingly bullish on their chances to net the gain of at least 15 seats that they need to oust the GOP’s J. Dennis Hastert of Illinois as the Speaker of the House and install Nancy Pelosi of California instead.
As of Oct. 27, CQ’s individual assessments of all 435 House races showed Democrats seriously contesting Republican holds on 72 seats (31 percent of the party’s current total) with seven of those races already leaning toward a Democratic takeover and 18 more considered genuine tossups — the result of a combination of Republican political weaknesses and the Emanuel team’s success at growing the roster of competitive Democratic challengers, many in districts that the party had not contested in years. By contrast, only 21 Democratic seats were in play, and only a handful appeared seriously at risk. The bottom line is that the Republicans are now ahead at least marginally in only 207 races, meaning that even if they hold on to all of those (which won’t happen) they must win 11 of the 18 tossups to retain power. The Democrats are now ahead in 210 races — nine more than the number of seats they have now — so if they hold all those leads they will need to win just eight of the tossups to gain control.
As they have throughout the campaign, the Democrats face their more daunting task in the Senate: They must gain a net of six seats to take control — an all-the-more-unlikely prospect just two years after they lost four seats. But their quest has now put them within striking distance...
posted by Lil' Mermaid | 10:14 AM
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